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It seems like the delivery of the Patriot missile systems to Ukraine is imminent. The rumblings about it have been bubbling for some time and now the US is moving closer to putting ink on these documents. Russia understands and hates that because these advanced systems would make it significantly harder for it to deliver deep attacks on Ukraine. How can Ukraine protect its precious Patriots if Russia will target them?
Russia will be interested in destroying the Patriot systems in Ukraine. Image credit: Bogdan Pantilimon via Wikimedia (CC BY-SA 3.0)
Russia cannot make up its mind as to what Patriot deliveries to Ukraine would mean. On one hand, the state media unleashed the waterfalls of crocodile tears about how the delivery of Patriot systems is unfair.
These air-defense devices are hardly a threat to Russia, but Moscow interprets them as an infringement on its interest to bomb Ukrainian cities. On the other hand, Vladimir Putin himself declared that Patriot systems are old (and the first versions were in fact developed in the late 1960’s) and not as good as the Russian S-300.
Russian military media was more realistic and said that the Patriot missile batteries will be destroyed – it will become the number 1 target in Russia’s list of attacks. And no one has illusions about it – as soon as the Patriot will be activated in Ukraine, Russia will try to destroy it.
Why Patriots need protection?
How can an air-defense system be destroyed? Well, it emits a powerful radar signal. This means that Russia may use anti-radar missiles, like the Kh-31P, to target them.
The Patriot is very good against aircraft and cruise missiles, but smaller missiles and drones can evade its electronic eyes. Also, anti-air missiles are incredibly expensive and not worth using against very small targets. This means that swarms of drones can be unleashed to destroy these defensive batteries in Ukraine.
How can the defenders of Ukraine protect them? Well, they should use them in smart ways that could deceive the Russian forces. Furthermore, a multi-layered protection shield should be created.
As a retired US Army colonel and air defense specialist David Schenk told The Drive, these air-defense systems will need a multi-layered defense themselves. Hopefully, they will be overlapping with NASAMS and similar systems. There should also be soldiers with MANPADS, like Stinger launchers. Short-range systems, like the AN/TWQ-1 Avenger, should also be nearby.
It is important to understand the weapons that the enemy can use. For example, the mentioned Kh-31P may (or may not) sniff out the radar signature of the missile battery.
However, the range of this missile is just 110 km. This information needs to be taken into account when choosing locations for the Patriot batteries and defenses for them.
Ukrainian soldiers have learned that Iranian-made Shahed drones, which Russia uses to attack the energy infrastructure in Ukraine, can be shot down using machine guns. This should also be understood and implemented before the Patriot systems reach Ukraine.
In short, Ukraine needs to do its homework before it can enjoy the benefits of the MIM-104 Patriot. These systems will need multi-layered protection.
Sources: Defence-ua.com, The Drive
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