The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has forecast the growth in Telangana’s energy consumption at over 58.71% during the decade from 2021-22 to 2031-32 with agriculture and irrigation sector continues to be the leading consumer with over one-thirds of total demand coming from it, although its share of consumption is projected to come down gradually by about 4% during the period.
The decrease in demand from the agriculture-irrigation sector is projected to be absorbed by the industrial (3%) and domestic (1%) sectors as the consumption of commercial and other sectors likely to remain almost the same with some minor variation. The decrease in agricultural consumption is expected to be due to increase in irrigation facilities and to small extent with promotion of solar-powered pump-sets.
The forecast was made by the CEA in its 20 th Electric Power Survey of India report released on November 21. The survey based on the assessment through partial end use method has projects worked out for Discoms, States, Union Territories and Regions. It also has perspective electricity demand projection done for the years 2036-37 and 2041-42.
The CEA report has forecast that the energy consumption is likely to cross one-lakh million units (MU) barrier in Telangana in 2028-29 and the peak demand of power to cross the 20,000 megawatt (MW) mark in 2027-28. The load generation computed by the Telangana Discoms and submitted to the Electricity Regulatory Commission assessed that the consumption would cross the one-lakh MU barrier in 2026-27 itself.
However, the projections of CEA are more pragmatic compared to the ones prepared by the Discoms. Against the projected requirement of energy put at 72,178 MU for 2021-22 by the Discoms, the CEA has put it at 70,871 MU. The actual consumption recorded was 71,052 MU.
Similarly, the peak load recorded in Telangana was 14,160 MW in 2021-22 against the projection of 14,176 MW made by the CEA. The transmission and distribution (T&D) losses are also projected to come down by 1% during the 2021-22 to 2031-32 decade.
In the discom-wise forecast, the CEA has projected the energy consumption growth rate of Northern Discom at 60.43% and that of Southern Discom at 58.06%. The agriculture-irrigation energy consumption in the Northern Discom areas is projected to come down by 6% and the industrial consumption to go up by 5%. In the Sourthern Discom, 3% decline in the agriculture-irrigation sector consumption is likely be availed by industrial (2%) and domestic (1%) sectors.
Projections for AP
The CEA report has forecast the energy consumption growth rate of 49.88% for Andhra Pradesh for the decade ending 2031-32. It has projected a decline of about 6% in the consumption of agriculture-irrigation sector and 1% of others during the period with industrial sector taking over about 5% and domestic sector over 2%.